For the time series below           
Part a) Develop a linear trend forecast          
Part b) Add a quadratic component to the model in part (a) and develop a new forecast        
Part c) Now assume a seasonal pattern and add the seasonality of the months to the linear trend model in part (a) and develop a new forecast     
Part d) Provide the MSE from the 3 models here 
MSE Model a  
MSE Model b 
MSE Model c   
Part e) Based on your answers to part d, for whichever forecast model you deem to be the best, draw a time series graph of both the original time series and the “best” forecast. 
   

 

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